Considering where we started, the 2nd quarter with snow still flying, giant piles of snow everywhere and few homes for sale, nearly matching last years sales volume is great news (330 for 2016 and 320 for 2017). The region closed out the second quarter with solid numbers. The numbers are mixed as usual but with some big changes in some market places. The biggest swing came from Tahoe Donner with a near 30% increase in sales volume from 68 in 2016 to 88 in 2017. Next biggest swing came out of the greater Truckee market at a decline of 22% which I am sure was mostly due to the very tight affordable home inventory early this year. The Tahoe Basin saw a nice 10% increase while Squaw and Alpine had 17% decrease. The average sale price in the basin which is something I rarely point out did have a nice increase from $792K in 2016 to $852K this quarter. Again the reason I rarely point out average sale price is because of the big impact of a few sales. For example in this past quarter there were 3 sales at over $5M while the same quarter last year had 2 sales at $3M plus and $4M plus. Nothing in the $5M’s. Hence the solid increase in the average sale price. Most other areas have remained nearly flat.
Inventory continues to be an issue but has made some recovery. That said we are still well below last years levels. In the Tahoe basin we are down 25% and Tahoe Donner is down nearly 20%. Interest rates though not moving much have started an upward trend again. All of this is leading to what feels like a shift in the market. Days on market has moved up and even some of that affordable inventory that we so desperately needed earlier this year is lingering on the market. The pending sales number which indicates the number of homes in contract is below what I would consider normal levels for this time of year. I do need a longer period of time to consider it any kind of a trend vs just a shift. From what I am hearing this is not just something we are feeling here. It seems to be across the state. Have we topped out on affordability? Some would argue yes. In my humble opinion that would be fine. If things just sort of flatten out a bit for a while keeps the market in a sustainable place vs a bubble pace.
We have officially lost 5 of the long term rentals we managed. The good news is that 2 of those were purchased by the tenants. One was simply sold and two others are going to vacation rentals. These are long term rentals that we have not been able to replace further shrinking the local availability of long term rentals for locals. While we may not be at crisis levels, it is a very real issue for the region. If you or anyone you know has a home they would like to rent long term please let us know. We do also represent seasonal and vacation rentals.
-Matt Hanson, Broker & Owner