One has a direct effect on the other. Making up for the slow start, June comes through with strong sales figures. Combined sales for the month was up nearly 20% from a year ago. Both the Tahoe Basin and Tahoe Donner saw increases of just over 50%. What does that look like in terms of real numbers, how about 26 to 40 for Tahoe and 25 to 38 for TD. It is going to be difficult to try to maintain anything close to this pace with the fall off of inventory. The pending sales point to this as well. As I write this newsletter the contingent and pending sales sits at 264 total properties. This does include everything from shared ownerships to vacant land to residential homes and condos. Normally for this time of year that figure sits at or above 300 total properties. It is not off by a lot but when you consider this and the lack of good value inventory it is likely the difference will increase meaning total sales continue to fall. I guess we will see how July numbers look.
How low is inventory? The Tahoe basin and Squaw/Alpine are both roughly 25% below this time last year. Tahoe Donner is down 20% from a year ago. Like I said above, increase sales volume will reflect in fewer places available for sale. There is one segment that is actually up on inventory, greater Truckee. I suspect these higher numbers are in the form of higher end listings in places like Gray’s Crossing, Lahontan, and Martis Camp mostly. The inventories for these areas are as follows, 13, 25 and 29. The more local neighborhoods of Glenshire, Prosser Lakeview and Sierra Meadows / Ponderosa Palisades are still tight at 11, 11 and 4. Additionally for Glenshire there are 5 pending sales and for Sierra Meadows and Ponderosa Palisade 5 pending sales. In industry lingo that means less then a 2 month supply or sellers markets.
Whats to come? Without a significant flow of new listings sales likely stay lower and prices continue higher. Now there is always the possibility that prices and values put a limit on what Buyers are willing to do and can then force the hand of the sellers. A recent article talked about how the hot real estate market in the bay area had cooled considerably and homes were sitting on the market longer. I have said it before and I will say it again, we follow trends from the bay area typically 3-6 months behind. Is our market set to cool, could be. If it does I think it is in sales volume not value.
-Matt Hanson, Broker & Owner